With pricing still in the mid-high single digits we'd advise reviewing contracts up to end of 2025 for expected contracted rates moving forward. It's hard to see the market getting significantly cheaper to where waiting and taking on the risk outweighs the benefit of security.
Current pricing is at a 5-month low off the back of high demand through winter reducing, and renewable wind & solar generation still being at high levels. There's risk of the market increasing with warmer weather towards the end of the year, generally this increased demand is offset with gas-fired generation which is quite expensive.
We'd advise short-mid term contracts for any contracts that are expiring in the next 12-months.
The market in QLD has held quite high and we haven't seen wind generation to the levels of SA/NSW/VIC that have brought the market down off the back of high demand in Winter. We'd expect to see the market hold flat until late November early December with increased demand outweighing general generation.
We'd advise short-mid term contracts for any contracts that are expiring in the next 12-months.
High wind-generation (which generally makes up 60% of generation in SA) has brought the market down to 6-month lows. With the SA market being so reliant on renewable energy there are risks but also potential benefits surrounding the demand and generation levels over the next few months. We'd look to monitor generation forecasts over the next few weeks/months to anaylse timing for future contracts.
We'd advise long-term contracts for any contracts expiring in the next 18-months.
Gas storage levels are quite high as they generally are heading out of Winter and into Summer. This often presents cheap pricing as generation outweighs demand. If we have a mild summer and gas isn't required to top up the generation then gas pricing will fall, but on the flipside if it is required it'll rise. This volatility can occur rapidly and becomes a chasing game once opportunities are missed.
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